It has been a challenging month for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, as neither has won since March 22. It’s not enough for them to win the New York primary today — they’ve got to win convincingly.
For Clinton, who is up by about 12 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average in New York, winning a nail-biter — by say, less than 5 points — wouldn’t be much of a win at all in terms of the delegates she would win. There is no winner-take-all threshold on the Democratic side, so the better Sanders does, the more delegates he’ll win.
On the GOP side, if Trump cracks 50 percent statewide — and his polling average has hovered above that mark — he’ll win 14 delegates. But the vast majority of New York’s 95 delegates are carved up among the state’s 27 congressional districts. Given the uneven distribution of GOP primary voters throughout the state, these haphazard boundaries will have important — and unpredictable — implications.