New Goucher Poll Shows Hogan’s Enduring Popularity, Tight U.S. Senate Race in Maryland

A recent Goucher College poll offers insights into Maryland voters’ perspectives on potential 2024 candidates and key issues driving their decisions. The survey reveals former Republican Governor Larry Hogan maintaining broad crossover appeal, while the Democratic U.S. Senate primary race is shaping up to be a toss-up.

Hogan’s Favorability Across Party Lines The poll found 63% of Maryland voters view Hogan favorably, including 57% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans, and a remarkable 77% of independents. These numbers underscore Hogan’s enduring bipartisan support even after leaving the governor’s office.

Democratic Senate Primary Too Close to Call On the Democratic side for the open U.S. Senate seat, U.S. Rep. David Trone holds a slim 43% favorability edge overall, bolstered by 52% of Democrats but lagging with 31% of Republicans and 35% of independents. His main primary opponent, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, trails slightly with 38% favorability statewide but leads Trone 47% to 43% among Democratic voters specifically.

Hypothetical General Election Matchups In hypothetical general election head-to-heads, a Hogan vs. Trone contest is virtually deadlocked at 43% for Hogan and 42% for Trone. A Hogan vs. Alsobrooks race shows Hogan with a 44% to 40% lead over Alsobrooks, though both matchups have around 10% of voters undecided.

Key Issues for 2024 Several prominent issues emerged as potentially decisive factors, with crime/public safety (78%), economic development (76%), taxes/spending (75%), and healthcare (72%) ranking as top “major” concerns for a majority of voters across party lines. Gun control (68%), abortion access (60%), and immigration (58%) also polled as high priorities.

The Goucher survey of 800 Maryland voters carries a +/- 3.5% margin of error. With several candidates polling competitively and a constellation of pivotal issues in play, the 2024 Senate race in the state is shaping up to be a pivotal toss-up battle that could hinge on candidates’ ability to sway the critical blocs of undecided and independent voters.