Reconstructing the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore that catastrophically collapsed earlier this week will be an immense undertaking that could take several years and cost at least $400 million, according to experts. The daunting project’s timeline and price tag hinge on numerous factors currently uncertain.
Key variables include the eventual design chosen for the new bridge spanning Baltimore’s maritime shipping channels, as well as how swiftly government agencies can navigate permitting, approvals, and contracting processes. Realistically, the bridge reconstruction could take 5-7 years, according to Ben Schafer, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University.
“The lead time on air conditioning equipment right now for a home renovation is like 16 months, right? So it’s like you’re telling me they’re going to build a whole bridge in two years? I want it to be true, but I think empirically it doesn’t feel right to me,” Schafer stated.
However, some experts are more optimistic about the potential timeline. Sameh Badie from George Washington University believes the project could be completed in as little as 18 months to 2 years under optimal conditions.
The urgency stems from this week’s catastrophe when the cargo ship Dali struck a bridge support, causing the span to collapse and killing six construction workers. The accident has shuttered Baltimore’s critical maritime port and a segment of the city’s beltway interstate.
While the 1980 collapse of Florida’s Sunshine Skyway Bridge after a freighter strike offers some parallels, experts say looking at more recent disasters provides a better model. The speedy 14-month reconstruction of Minnesota’s I-35W bridge after its 2007 collapse is being cited as an aspirational benchmark.
“It’s the best comparison that we have for a project like this,” said Jim Tymon of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. “They did outstanding work in being able to get the approvals necessary to be able to rebuild that as quickly as possible.”
Tymon expects various agencies to cooperate in expediting permits and environmental reviews, though not cutting corners. A primary hurdle will be securing full funding, despite President Biden’s vow of federal support.
“Hopefully, Congress will be able to come together to provide those resources as soon as possible so that does not become a source of delay,” Tymon stated.
Cost projections range from $400 million on the low end by engineering professor Hota GangaRao, if the bridge’s existing piers can be reused, to $500 million to $1 billion estimated by professor Badie, depending on design factors like construction type.
Steel prices, supply chain constraints, and competition for limited contractors able to handle such a massive job will drive up expenses. “A project like this is going to be expedited, so everything is going to cost a lot more,” Badie warned.
Ultimately, while replacing the vital Baltimore bridge link is a preeminent priority, the enormity of rebuilding a major span points to a multi-year process full of engineering and bureaucratic hurdles.
“It’s quite a process to actually get a bridge of this type into operation,” said Norma Jean Mattei, an emeritus engineering professor. Despite urgency, the daunting Baltimore bridge reconstruction seems fated to be measured in years, not months.