The survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group between February 24-26, found Dixon at 40% support compared to 37% for Scott. The poll carries a margin of error of +/- 5%.

While close, the results represent a continued slight edge for Dixon after a December poll also showed her marginally ahead of Scott.

The two frontrunners are trailed by former federal prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah at 10% and businessman Bob Wallace at 6% in the latest poll numbers. 8% of respondents were undecided.

Notably, the poll indicated Dixon may have an advantage in terms of stronger voter commitment, with 81% saying they “strongly” support her compared to 19% whose backing was “not that strong.” For Scott, those figures were nearly reversed at 48% strong support versus 52% “not that strong” support.

With a competitive four-way primary race heading into the homestretch, the poll suggests a tight battle remains between the two perceived frontrunners Dixon and Scott. Strength of voter enthusiasm and turnout efforts could prove decisive factors.

Both campaigns are likely to scrutinize the results through their own lens. For Dixon, it continues a stretch of holding a modest lead, while Scott will take solace in confirming he remains within striking distance despite being an incumbent.

The poll provides a snapshot of the fluid state of the race, though its timing before the final campaign stretch means the rankings could still shift considerably before voters head to the polls.

No matter the eventual winner, the poll underscores that Baltimore Democrats can expect a hard-fought, potentially narrowly decided mayoral primary contest.